The second summit between US President Donald Trump and North Korean leader Kim Jong-un will take place in Hanoi on Wednesday and Thursday. Hosting such an event will increase Vietnam’s influence in regional and international affairs and boost its international standing. Hanoi can prove that it can play an important role in bringing together nations to address international disputes, thereby gaining global trust.
In recent years, Hanoi has strengthened ties with Washington. Moreover, Vietnam maintains close relations with North Korea, as both are socialist countries. The choice of venue for the summit shows the extent of US and North Korean reliance on Vietnam.
In July 2018, after talks with North Korean officials in Pyongyang, US Secretary of State Mike Pompeo said North Korea can replicate Hanoi’s path to normalize relations with Washington and to seek prosperity.
Vietnam is developing a socialism-oriented market economy. In spite of a different way to describe it, the country’s model resembles China’s in essence. Led by a Communist Party, Vietnam has developed its economy and society in a planned, systematic and controlled way, rather than indiscriminately copying Western market economies.
North Korean leaders would like to use this trip as a learning opportunity. Pyongyang may intend to explore the development of Vietnam and learn from its experience in opening up especially since the political and economic renewal campaign (doi moi) in 1986. North Korea may want to apply the experience to its current or even later social and economic development plans.
However, it does not mean North Korea would simply copy Vietnam. In absorbing the experience of other countries, North Korea has several options and Vietnam’s model is only one of them. For example, China also has many experiences that North Korea can learn from.
Moreover, US may hope its ties with North Korea could develop the way its relations with Vietnam have taken off. The US and Vietnam have turned from historical enemies to partners. Washington would like to showcase its relations with Hanoi to North Korea so as to persuade Pyongyang to cooperate with the US on the nuclear issue and to promote bilateral ties.
South Korean newspaper Korea Joongang Daily reported, quoting a South Korean intelligence source, that Kim is planning to pay a state visit to Vietnam on Monday, two days prior to the summit. If it is true, it will be North Korean leader’s first state visit to Vietnam in 55 years.
If Kim does pay a state visit to Hanoi before the summit, it would be a shot in the arm for Vietnam’s relations with North Korea, increase communication and mutual political trust, and help scale up cooperation in economy and other fields between the two sides, such as people-to-people exchanges. If it goes smoothly, Pyongyang will gradually send officials to learn from Hanoi’s experience.
However, there would be no significant changes in bilateral relations between Washington and Hanoi.
The US and Vietnam have cooperated on many programs and their economic and trade exchanges have become increasingly frequent. In the future, both countries will strengthen economic cooperation. In terms of people-to-people exchanges, there are many Vietnamese-Americans living in the US. Washington will engage more with Vietnamese society with political motivations. Washington aims to impose the US model on Vietnam and gradually lead to the implementation of US-style democracy in the country. However, Vietnam will be vigilant against any US attempt to export colour revolution to its society.
The author is a professor at Centre for China’s Neighbor Diplomacy Studies and School of International Studies, Yunnan University.
(In Association with Global Times)
